Inverter overcapacity and replacement shortly after year 10

The global PV supply chain is running with supply above demand. In an interview with pv magazine, Edurne Zoco of S&P Global points to Chinese cell capacity above 900 GW a year against global demand of about 590 GW, and margins at the largest module makers falling from around 9% in 2023 into negative territory in 2025.

Zoco says the main risk in inverters is now regulatory, and that nine of the ten largest suppliers are Chinese. Report IEA-PVPS T13-08:2017, from Task 13, recommends planning inverter replacement just after year 10 of operation.

That is where the two points meet. Buying an inverter today means scheduling a replacement around 2037, and the maker's eligibility may have changed by then: the FCC restriction on new foreign models and the loss of EU project-financing eligibility for high-risk suppliers already alter who can deliver the part.

A low price settles capex. The year-10 expense depends on the supplier still being eligible, and that is contracted at purchase, with a qualified alternative supplier.