IAA Transportation and the CO2 targets for heavy vehicles

At IAA Transportation 2026, which opened on September 15 in Hanover, Toyota announced it will supply fuel cells for heavy trucks to Scania and Iveco, and China's Dongfeng presented a 400 kW system with a maximum range of 1,700 km.

None of the announcements states contracted volume or supply term. What sets the term today is the rule: Regulation (EU) 2024/1610, amending Regulation (EU) 2019/1242, requires new heavy trucks in the European Union to cut CO2 by 45% from 2030, 65% from 2035 and 90% from 2040.

It cuts both ways. For a fuel cell supplier, the rule creates a demand window with a date and a percentage attached, which supports a plant decision. Without a firm order carrying volume and term, the plant is built against expectation, and Hyundai, which opened the segment, runs about 400 hydrogen trucks across seven countries.

What decides this market is the first supply contract signed with volume and term.