Energy Transition Index 2026: progress has stalled

The World Economic Forum reports that in the Energy Transition Index 2026, published on 18 June and covering 120 countries, global progress has flatlined and transition readiness declined for the first time in over a decade. According to Roberto Bocca, the Forum's Head of Energy and Materials, the best-placed countries are those strengthening resilient infrastructure, reliable systems and the conditions to attract investment.

The investment picture here comes from an independent source. World Energy Investment 2026, from the International Energy Agency, projects USD 3.4 trillion of energy investment this year, 5% above 2025, of which USD 2.2 trillion in clean energy. The growth is uneven: 7% in advanced economies and China, against 4% in other emerging markets.

The gap between 7% and 4% is not explained by natural resource or equipment price. It is explained by revenue. Long-term capital goes where a long contract exists, whether a PPA, a capacity contract or a regulated tariff. Where remuneration depends on short-term prices, a project needs a higher return to get built.

For Brazil, which has the resource and holds auctions, the variable to track is the term and firmness of the contract offered in each tender. That is what turns potential into installed capital.