Installed hydrogen capacity is not production

Dr. Wang Zhiqiang argues that installed hydrogen production capacity is not the same as actual production, and that the industry will be measured by operating hours, utilisation, efficiency degradation, hydrogen cost and, ultimately, whether stable demand exists.

The IEA's Global Hydrogen Review 2026 puts numbers behind it: global installed electrolysis capacity doubled in 2025 and passed 4 GW, with China accounting for nearly three quarters of new installations, while low-emissions hydrogen production reached close to 1 million tonnes in the year, up 20%. Global hydrogen demand surpassed 100 million tonnes in 2025.

The gap between those numbers is where the risk sits. A project selling capacity delivers installed megawatts; a supply contract bills delivered tonnes. If utilisation lands below plan, someone absorbs the difference: the producer, through idle fixed cost, or the buyer, who goes back to fossil hydrogen.

The report itself sets the deadline: committed projects add up to just over 6 million tonnes by 2030, against 10 million in the previous edition, and about 22 million tonnes of announced projects risk missing 2030 without an investment decision by early 2027.