Green steel starts at the mine: the shortfall in direct-reduction pellets

Decarbonising steel starts with the ore. In a piece reposted by Klaus Steven, Spherical Insights describes BHP, Rio Tinto, SSAB and LKAB advancing hydrogen reduction and electrification, and South Africa naming six priority hydrogen projects in September 2026, including the Saldanha DRI project, still at pre-feasibility.

IEEFA, in an analysis dated 19 March 2026, notes that direct-reduction grade ore is a small share of global supply and cites shortfall projections: 15 million tonnes a year by 2030 and 133 million by 2040 from BloombergNEF, and up to 16.4 million by 2034 from Midrex.

A hydrogen DRI plant without a contract for high-grade pellets depends on a scarce input. For Brazil this opens room: IEEFA names Vale and Samarco in the supply expansion.

Whoever secures suitable ore on long contracts sets the pace of green steel. Hydrogen comes after that.