Nº400
Trem a hidrogênio projeta US$ 3,46 bilhões em 2030, e a Baixa Saxônia licita 102 trens a bateria
A For Insights Consultancy, de Mahesh Koshti, divulga um guia em PDF sobre trens a célula de combustível mediante e-mail corporativo. Segundo a consultoria, o mercado valia US$ 1.450,98 milhões em 2022 e chegaria a US$ 3.458,62 milhões em 2030, alta anual de 11,5%. A imagem destaca o primeiro trem a hidrogênio do Japão.
O caso japonês está na largada. Segundo a Eco-Business, sobre comunicado da JR East de 14/07/2026, o HYBARI, de dois carros, deve operar comercialmente até o fim do ano fiscal de 2027, em Kawasaki, com cerca de 70 km por abastecimento a 35 MPa.
A Baixa Saxônia mostra quem absorve o risco quando a premissa muda. Segundo a Railway Gazette de 10/08/2023, a autoridade de transporte LNVG, em cuja rede circulam trens Coradia iLint a hidrogênio desde 2018, decidiu licitar 102 trens a bateria para substituir o diesel a partir de 2029, por menor custo total.
Para quem contrata frota ferroviária, a projeção é ponto de partida. A escolha passa pelo trecho sem catenária e por quem garante o hidrogênio no pátio. Onde essa conta fecha, o trem a célula de combustível ganha espaço.
English version
For Insights Consultancy, led by Mahesh Koshti, is promoting a PDF guide on fuel cell trains. According to the consultancy, the market was worth US$ 1,450.98 million in 2022 and would reach US$ 3,458.62 million by 2030, an 11.5% annual growth rate. The post's image highlights Japan's first hydrogen train.
The Japanese case is still at the starting line. According to Eco-Business, on a JR East release of 14/07/2026, the two-car HYBARI is due to enter commercial service by the end of fiscal 2027 in Kawasaki, with about 70 km per refill at 35 MPa.
Lower Saxony shows who absorbs the risk when the premise shifts. According to Railway Gazette on 10/08/2023, the LNVG transport authority, whose network has carried Coradia iLint hydrogen trains since 2018, chose to tender 102 battery trains to replace diesel from 2029, citing lower overall cost.
For rail fleet buyers, the projection is a starting point. Fleet choice depends on the unelectrified distance and on who guarantees hydrogen at the depot. Where that math closes, the fuel cell train gains ground.
FontesRailway Gazette, Transport authority opts for battery rather than hydrogen trains, 10/08/2023, https://railwaygazette.com/traction-and-rolling-stock/transport-authority-opts-for-battery-rather-than-hydrogen-trains/64684.article | Eco-Business, JR East to launch Japan's first commercial hydrogen hybrid train in fiscal 2027, 20/07/2026, https://www.eco-business.com/news/jr-east-to-launch-japans-first-commercial-hydrogen-hybrid-train-in-fiscal-2027/